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Carabobo FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
5/31/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara (Barquisimeto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Carabobo FC50%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.50
Atletico Venezuela
0.96

Carabobo FC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 60 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
76%
Carabobo FC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
50%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
78%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
44%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
24%

Carabobo FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabobo FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Carabobo FC beat Atletico Venezuela 1-0 in Primera División on May 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara (Barquisimeto).