Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Venezuela vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
11/22/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 12Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela37%
×Draw28%
Carabobo FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.19
Carabobo FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 145 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Carabobo FC
1.09

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Carabobo FC
1.09

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
64%
Atletico Venezuela or Carabobo FC
72%
Draw or Carabobo FC
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
15%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
12%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
69%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
33%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
51%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Carabobo FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Carabobo FC attack 1.09 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
37%
level
28%
Carabobo FC scores more
36%

Atletico Venezuela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Venezuela vs Carabobo FC

Atletico Venezuela beat Carabobo FC 2-0 in Primera División on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.