Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carabobo FC vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
9/1/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 26Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Carabobo FC52%
×Draw25%
Angostura FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.59
Angostura FC
0.98

Carabobo FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 30 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
77%
Carabobo FC or Angostura FC
75%
Draw or Angostura FC
48%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
27%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
80%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
47%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
21%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
62%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
26%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
69%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Angostura FC scores more
23%

Carabobo FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carabobo FC 1–1 Angostura FC

Carabobo FC and Angostura FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.