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Carabanchel vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ursaria
Ursaria
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 42Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Carabanchel31%
×Draw29%
Ursaria39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
0.99
Ursaria
1.15

Ursaria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 35 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
61%
Carabanchel or Ursaria
71%
Draw or Ursaria
69%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
12%
Ursaria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
63%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
26%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
8%
Ursaria 1+ goals
68%
Ursaria 2+ goals
32%
Ursaria 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
44%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carabanchel scores more
31%
level
29%
Ursaria scores more
39%

Ursaria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabanchel vs Ursaria

Ursaria beat Carabanchel 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.