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Carabanchel vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Carabanchel41%
×Draw29%
Trival Valderas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.19
Trival Valderas
0.95

Carabanchel creates 25% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 115 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
71%
Carabanchel or Trival Valderas
71%
Draw or Trival Valderas
59%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
18%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
70%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
33%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
12%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
61%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
25%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
59%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carabanchel scores more
41%
level
29%
Trival Valderas scores more
29%

Carabanchel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabanchel vs Trival Valderas

Trival Valderas beat Carabanchel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.