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Carabanchel vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carabanchel47%
×Draw26%
San Fernando Henares27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.45
San Fernando Henares
1.03

Carabanchel creates 41% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
73%
Carabanchel or San Fernando Henares
74%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
53%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
23%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
77%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
42%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
18%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
64%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
28%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
64%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carabanchel scores more
47%
level
26%
San Fernando Henares scores more
27%

Carabanchel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carabanchel 2 – 0 San Fernando Henares

Carabanchel beat San Fernando Henares 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.