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Carabanchel vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
3/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Carabanchel42%
×Draw30%
Móstoles CF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.16
Móstoles CF
0.87

Carabanchel creates 33% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
73%
Carabanchel or Móstoles CF
70%
Draw or Móstoles CF
58%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
18%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
69%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
32%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
11%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
58%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
22%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
61%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carabanchel scores more
42%
level
30%
Móstoles CF scores more
27%

Carabanchel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carabanchel 1 – 1 Móstoles CF

Carabanchel and Móstoles CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.