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Carabanchel vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Carabanchel42%
×Draw30%
Flat Earth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.14
Flat Earth
0.88

Carabanchel creates 30% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
72%
Carabanchel or Flat Earth
70%
Draw or Flat Earth
58%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
18%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
68%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
32%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
11%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
59%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
22%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
60%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carabanchel scores more
42%
level
30%
Flat Earth scores more
28%

Carabanchel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabanchel vs Flat Earth

Flat Earth beat Carabanchel 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.