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Carabanchel vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Carabanchel50%
×Draw27%
El Álamo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.45
El Álamo
0.89

Carabanchel creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 47 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
77%
Carabanchel or El Álamo
73%
Draw or El Álamo
50%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
25%
El Álamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
77%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
42%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
18%
El Álamo 1+ goals
59%
El Álamo 2+ goals
22%
El Álamo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
68%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carabanchel scores more
50%
level
27%
El Álamo scores more
23%

Carabanchel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carabanchel 3 – 1 El Álamo

Carabanchel beat El Álamo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.