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Carabanchel vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Complutense
Complutense
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Carabanchel49%
×Draw30%
Complutense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.25
Complutense
0.70

Carabanchel creates 79% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Complutense
0.47

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Complutense
1.42

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Complutense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
79%
Carabanchel or Complutense
70%
Draw or Complutense
51%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
23%
Complutense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
71%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
36%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
13%
Complutense 1+ goals
50%
Complutense 2+ goals
16%
Complutense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
70%
Complutense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Complutense attack 0.47 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carabanchel scores more
49%
level
30%
Complutense scores more
21%

Carabanchel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabanchel vs Complutense

Carabanchel and Complutense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.