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CARA Brazzaville vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

CARA Brazzaville
CARA Brazzaville
FT
2 – 1
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
5/20/2023League #844League #844 · Round 25Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CARA Brazzaville40%
×Draw31%
Nouvelle Génération29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CARA Brazzaville
1.11
Nouvelle Génération
0.89

CARA Brazzaville creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

CARA Brazzaville
0.67
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

CARA Brazzaville
1.00
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

CARA Brazzaville+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CARA Brazzaville ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CARA Brazzaville or draw
71%
CARA Brazzaville or Nouvelle Génération
69%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
60%

Winning margin

CARA Brazzaville wins by 2+
17%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CARA Brazzaville 1+ goals
67%
CARA Brazzaville 2+ goals
30%
CARA Brazzaville 3+ goals
10%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
59%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
22%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CARA Brazzaville (draw refunded)
58%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CARA Brazzaville at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CARA Brazzaville attack 0.67 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + CARA Brazzaville defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CARA Brazzaville scores more
40%
level
31%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
29%

CARA Brazzaville at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CARA Brazzaville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: CARA Brazzaville 2–1 Nouvelle Génération

CARA Brazzaville beat Nouvelle Génération 2-1 in League #844 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.