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Car Konstantin vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
4 – 0
Župa
Župa
8/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Car Konstantin53%
×Draw21%
Župa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
2.13
Župa
1.43

Car Konstantin creates 49% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Župa
2.58

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
74%
Car Konstantin or Župa
79%
Draw or Župa
47%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
32%
Župa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
88%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
63%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
35%
Župa 1+ goals
76%
Župa 2+ goals
42%
Župa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
67%
Župa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Župa attack 1.26 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
53%
level
21%
Župa scores more
26%

Car Konstantin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Župa

Car Konstantin beat Župa 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.