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Car Konstantin vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
2 – 0
Vlasina
Vlasina
4/23/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Car Konstantin42%
×Draw23%
Vlasina34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.69
Vlasina
1.50

Car Konstantin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 101 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
66%
Car Konstantin or Vlasina
77%
Draw or Vlasina
58%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
22%
Vlasina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
82%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
50%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
24%
Vlasina 1+ goals
78%
Vlasina 2+ goals
44%
Vlasina 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
55%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
42%
level
23%
Vlasina scores more
34%

Car Konstantin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Vlasina

Car Konstantin beat Vlasina 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.