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Car Konstantin vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
0 – 1
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
4/25/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Car Konstantin44%
×Draw24%
Timok Zaječar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.61
Timok Zaječar
1.33

Car Konstantin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 64 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
68%
Car Konstantin or Timok Zaječar
76%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
56%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
22%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
80%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
48%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
22%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
74%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
38%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
58%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
44%
level
24%
Timok Zaječar scores more
32%

Car Konstantin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Timok Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat Car Konstantin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.