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Car Konstantin vs Dunav Prahovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
5 – 3
Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
10/4/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Car Konstantin48%
×Draw23%
Dunav Prahovo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.78
Dunav Prahovo
1.33

Car Konstantin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 79 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Dunav Prahovo
1.05

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Dunav Prahovo
1.90

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Dunav Prahovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
71%
Car Konstantin or Dunav Prahovo
77%
Draw or Dunav Prahovo
52%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
26%
Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
83%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
53%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
26%
Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
74%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
38%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
62%
Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
48%
level
23%
Dunav Prahovo scores more
29%

Car Konstantin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Dunav Prahovo

Car Konstantin beat Dunav Prahovo 5-3 in Srpska Liga - East on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.