CAPS United 1–0 Bulawayo City: Result & Stats

CAPS United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bulawayo City

8/14/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 24National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CAPS United48%

×Draw31%

Bulawayo City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPS UnitedExpected goals in this matchBulawayo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.67

CAPS United

1.17

Bulawayo City

0.67

CAPS United creates 75% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

1.22

creates per match

0.38

0.96

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

CAPS United

1.22

Bulawayo City

0.38

allows per match

CAPS United

0.96

Bulawayo City

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAPS United+0.00on par

Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAPS United ↓

Bulawayo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CAPS United or draw

79%

CAPS United or Bulawayo City

69%

Draw or Bulawayo City

52%

Winning margin

CAPS United wins by 2+

21%

Bulawayo City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CAPS United 1+ goals

69%

CAPS United 2+ goals

33%

CAPS United 3+ goals

11%

Bulawayo City 1+ goals

49%

Bulawayo City 2+ goals

15%

Bulawayo City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CAPS United (draw refunded)

69%

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAPS United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAPS United attack 1.22 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + CAPS United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CAPS United scores more

48%

level

31%

Bulawayo City scores more

21%

CAPS United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff