Čapljina 1–1 Travnik: Result & Stats

Čapljina

FT

1 – 1

Travnik

11/14/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina56%

×Draw25%

Travnik20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČapljinaExpected goals in this matchTravnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.87

Čapljina

1.64

Travnik

0.87

Čapljina creates 89% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 80 away

1.57

creates per match

0.91

0.83

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Čapljina

1.57

Travnik

0.91

allows per match

Čapljina

0.83

Travnik

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par

Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Travnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw

80%

Čapljina or Travnik

75%

Draw or Travnik

44%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+

30%

Travnik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals

81%

Čapljina 2+ goals

49%

Čapljina 3+ goals

23%

Travnik 1+ goals

58%

Travnik 2+ goals

22%

Travnik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)

74%

Travnik (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Travnik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Travnik attack 0.91 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Čapljina scores more

56%

level

25%

Travnik scores more

20%

Čapljina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff