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Čapljina vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
CANC
00:00
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
3/14/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina50%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.56
TOŠK Tešanj
1.02

Čapljina creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
75%
Čapljina or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
50%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
26%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
79%
Čapljina 2+ goals
46%
Čapljina 3+ goals
21%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
64%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
27%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
67%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Čapljina scores more
50%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
25%

Čapljina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Čapljina vs TOŠK Tešanj — Match Preview

Čapljina face TOŠK Tešanj on March 14, 2020 in this 1st League - FBiH fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Čapljina host TOŠK Tešanj at Stadion Bjelave.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.