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Čapljina vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
2 – 2
Goražde
Goražde
9/19/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina51%
×Draw27%
Goražde22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.46
Goražde
0.87

Čapljina creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 82 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
78%
Čapljina or Goražde
73%
Draw or Goražde
49%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
26%
Goražde wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
77%
Čapljina 2+ goals
43%
Čapljina 3+ goals
18%
Goražde 1+ goals
58%
Goražde 2+ goals
22%
Goražde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
69%
Goražde (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Goražde attack 0.91 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Čapljina scores more
51%
level
27%
Goražde scores more
22%

Čapljina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čapljina vs Goražde

Čapljina and Goražde drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.