Capivariano U20 0–1 XV de Piracicaba U20

Capivariano U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

XV de Piracicaba U20

8/12/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 15Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2044%

×Draw25%

XV de Piracicaba U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Capivariano U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Piracicaba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Capivariano U20

1.50

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.21

Capivariano U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

1.65

creates per match

1.25

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Capivariano U20

1.65

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

allows per match

Capivariano U20

1.18

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw

69%

Capivariano U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20

75%

Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20

56%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+

22%

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals

78%

Capivariano U20 2+ goals

44%

Capivariano U20 3+ goals

19%

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

70%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

34%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)

59%

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more

44%

level

25%

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

31%

Capivariano U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff