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Capivariano U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
Unknown 48'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Arena Capivari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2037%
×Draw26%
XV de Jaú U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.37
XV de Jaú U20
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
63%
Capivariano U20 or XV de Jaú U20
74%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
63%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
17%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
75%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
40%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
16%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
74%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
39%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
50%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
37%

Capivariano U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capivariano U20 vs XV de Jaú U20

Capivariano U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: ? (48').

The match was played at Arena Capivari in Capivari, São Paulo.