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Capivariano U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
Preview
18:00
Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
47%
Capivariano U20
model favours
47%23%30%

Capivariano U20 sit 15, Tanabi SP U20 44 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Capivariano U2047%
×Draw23%
Tanabi SP U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.76
Tanabi SP U20
1.37

Capivariano U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Tanabi SP U20
1.56

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Tanabi SP U20
1.88

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
70%
Capivariano U20 or Tanabi SP U20
77%
Draw or Tanabi SP U20
53%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
25%
Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
83%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
52%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
26%
Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
75%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
40%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
47%
level
23%
Tanabi SP U20 scores more
30%

Capivariano U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WDDLD
U20
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Capivariano U20 face Tanabi SP U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Capivariano U20 hosting Tanabi SP U20. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.