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Capivariano U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
Unknown 90+4', 75', 65', 54' (pen)
Unknown 17'
5/25/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Arena Capivari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2025%
×Draw23%
RB Bragantino U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.20
RB Bragantino U20
1.86

RB Bragantino U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
RB Bragantino U20
2.54

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
RB Bragantino U20
0.75

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
47%
Capivariano U20 or RB Bragantino U20
77%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
75%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
10%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
70%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
34%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
12%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
84%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
55%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
32%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.20

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
25%
level
23%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
53%

RB Bragantino U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
54'
Penalty
65'
75'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Capivariano U20 4–1 RB Bragantino U20

Capivariano U20 beat RB Bragantino U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: ? (17', 54' pen, 65', 75', 90+4').

The match was played at Arena Capivari in Capivari, São Paulo.