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Capivariano U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
9/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2043%
×Draw25%
Ponte Preta U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.50
Ponte Preta U20
1.27

Capivariano U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
68%
Capivariano U20 or Ponte Preta U20
75%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
57%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
21%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
78%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
44%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
19%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
72%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
36%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
43%
level
25%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
32%

Capivariano U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capivariano U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Capivariano U20 and Ponte Preta U20 drew 0-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo.