Capivariano U20 2–2 Ituano U20: Result & Stats

Capivariano U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ituano U20

Erivaldo 75', 42'

M. Renan 90+3'

B. Teruel 45+2'

7/3/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2039%

×Draw24%

Ituano U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Capivariano U20Expected goals in this matchItuano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.49

Capivariano U20

1.55

Ituano U20

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

1.65

creates per match

1.80

1.18

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Capivariano U20

1.65

Ituano U20

1.80

allows per match

Capivariano U20

1.18

Ituano U20

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw

63%

Capivariano U20 or Ituano U20

76%

Draw or Ituano U20

61%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+

19%

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals

79%

Capivariano U20 2+ goals

46%

Capivariano U20 3+ goals

20%

Ituano U20 1+ goals

77%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

44%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more

39%

level

24%

Ituano U20 scores more

37%

Capivariano U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Erivaldo

45+2'

B. Teruel

75'

Erivaldo

90+3'

M. Renan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff