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Capivariano U20 vs Comercial de Tietê U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
Maranhao 22'
5/2/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Arena Capivari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Capivariano U2054%
×Draw22%
Comercial de Tietê U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.90
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.17

Capivariano U20 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.15

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Comercial de Tietê U20
2.15

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Comercial de Tietê U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
77%
Capivariano U20 or Comercial de Tietê U20
78%
Draw or Comercial de Tietê U20
46%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
31%
Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
85%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
56%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
29%
Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
69%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
33%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
70%
Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Comercial de Tietê U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.15 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
54%
level
22%
Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
23%

Capivariano U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Maranhao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Capivariano U20 1–0 Comercial de Tietê U20

Capivariano U20 beat Comercial de Tietê U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: Maranhao (22').

The match was played at Arena Capivari in Capivari, São Paulo.