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Capital vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

Capital
Capital
FT
2 – 3
United PDX
United PDX
7/6/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 17John Chambers Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Capital23%
×Draw19%
United PDX57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capital
1.50
United PDX
2.42

United PDX creates 61% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Capital
1.50
United PDX
1.64

allows per match

Capital
3.21
United PDX
1.50

finishing

Capital+0.00on par
United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capital ↓

United PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Capital or draw
43%
Capital or United PDX
81%
Draw or United PDX
77%

Winning margin

Capital wins by 2+
10%
United PDX wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Capital 1+ goals
78%
Capital 2+ goals
44%
Capital 3+ goals
19%
United PDX 1+ goals
91%
United PDX 2+ goals
69%
United PDX 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Capital (draw refunded)
29%
United PDX (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capital at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capital attack 1.50 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

United PDX attack 1.64 + Capital defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Capital scores more
23%
level
19%
United PDX scores more
57%

United PDX at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Capital 2–3 United PDX

United PDX beat Capital 3-2 in USL League Two on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at John Chambers Field in Salem, Oregon.