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Khujand vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2015

Khujand
Khujand
FT
1 – 7
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
11/22/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 18Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Khujand26%
×Draw24%
Istiqlol50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.15
Istiqlol
1.70

Istiqlol creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.59
Istiqlol
2.44

allows per match

Khujand
0.96
Istiqlol
0.71

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
50%
Khujand or Istiqlol
76%
Draw or Istiqlol
74%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
10%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
68%
Khujand 2+ goals
32%
Khujand 3+ goals
11%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
82%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
51%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
34%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.44, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.59 + Istiqlol defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Istiqlol attack 2.44 + Khujand defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khujand scores more
26%
level
24%
Istiqlol scores more
50%

Istiqlol at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Khujand 7-1 in Vysshaya Liga on November 22, 2015.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khujand.