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Carrick Rangers vs Portadown — Championship 2018

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
FT
2 – 0
Portadown
Portadown
4/30/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Play-offsBelfast Loughshore Hotel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carrick Rangers47%
×Draw25%
Portadown29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.60
Portadown
1.20

Carrick Rangers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
1.80
Portadown
1.10

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
1.30
Portadown
1.40

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
71%
Carrick Rangers or Portadown
75%
Draw or Portadown
53%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
24%
Portadown wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
80%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
47%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
22%
Portadown 1+ goals
70%
Portadown 2+ goals
34%
Portadown 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
62%
Portadown (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.80 + Portadown defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Portadown attack 1.10 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
47%
level
25%
Portadown scores more
29%

Carrick Rangers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Carrick Rangers 2–0 Portadown

Carrick Rangers beat Portadown 2-0 in Championship on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena in Carrickfergus.