Banbridge Town 2–1 Armagh City: Result & Stats

Banbridge Town

FT

2 – 1

Armagh City

10/7/2017

League #561 · Round 6Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Banbridge Town45%

×Draw24%

Armagh City31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banbridge TownExpected goals in this matchArmagh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.38

Banbridge Town

1.69

Armagh City

1.38

Banbridge Town creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.75

creates per match

1.31

1.45

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Banbridge Town

1.75

Armagh City

1.31

allows per match

Banbridge Town

1.45

Armagh City

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Armagh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw

69%

Banbridge Town or Armagh City

76%

Draw or Armagh City

55%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+

23%

Armagh City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals

82%

Banbridge Town 2+ goals

50%

Banbridge Town 3+ goals

24%

Armagh City 1+ goals

75%

Armagh City 2+ goals

40%

Armagh City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)

59%

Armagh City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.75 + Armagh City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Armagh City attack 1.31 + Banbridge Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Banbridge Town scores more

45%

level

24%

Armagh City scores more

31%

Banbridge Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff