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Cape Verde Islands vs Tanzania — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
FT
3 – 0
Tanzania
Tanzania
10/12/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde (Praia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cape Verde Islands60%
×Draw26%
Tanzania14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Verde Islands
1.48
Tanzania
0.56

Cape Verde Islands creates 164% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cape Verde Islands
1.25
Tanzania
0.50

allows per match

Cape Verde Islands
0.63
Tanzania
1.70

finishing

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par
Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Verde Islands ↓

Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cape Verde Islands or draw
86%
Cape Verde Islands or Tanzania
74%
Draw or Tanzania
40%

Winning margin

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
31%
Tanzania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
77%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
43%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
19%
Tanzania 1+ goals
43%
Tanzania 2+ goals
11%
Tanzania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
81%
Tanzania (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Verde Islands at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Tanzania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.25 + Tanzania defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tanzania attack 0.50 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cape Verde Islands scores more
60%
level
26%
Tanzania scores more
14%

Cape Verde Islands at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Cape Verde Islands 3–0 Tanzania

Cape Verde Islands beat Tanzania 3-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde (Praia).