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Cape Verde Islands vs Mauritania — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islandsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mauritania
Mauritania
1/29/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cape Verde Islands66%
×Draw23%
Mauritania11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Verde Islands
1.69
Mauritania
0.51

Cape Verde Islands creates 231% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cape Verde Islands
1.25
Mauritania
0.38

allows per match

Cape Verde Islands
0.63
Mauritania
2.13

finishing

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Verde Islands ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cape Verde Islands or draw
89%
Cape Verde Islands or Mauritania
77%
Draw or Mauritania
34%

Winning margin

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
38%
Mauritania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
82%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
50%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
24%
Mauritania 1+ goals
40%
Mauritania 2+ goals
9%
Mauritania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
86%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Verde Islands at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.25 + Mauritania defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mauritania attack 0.38 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cape Verde Islands scores more
66%
level
23%
Mauritania scores more
11%

Cape Verde Islands at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cape Verde Islands vs Mauritania

Cape Verde Islands beat Mauritania 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.