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Cape Verde Islands vs Equatorial Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cape Verde Islands63%
×Draw24%
Equatorial Guinea13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Verde Islands
1.60
Equatorial Guinea
0.56

Cape Verde Islands creates 186% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cape Verde Islands
1.83
Equatorial Guinea
0.63

allows per match

Cape Verde Islands
0.50
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Verde Islands ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cape Verde Islands or draw
87%
Cape Verde Islands or Equatorial Guinea
76%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
37%

Winning margin

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
35%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
80%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
47%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
22%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
43%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
11%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
83%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Verde Islands at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.83 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.63 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cape Verde Islands scores more
63%
level
24%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
13%

Cape Verde Islands at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Cape Verde Islands 1–0 Equatorial Guinea

Cape Verde Islands beat Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.