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Cape Verde Islands vs Egypt — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Egypt
Egypt
1/22/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cape Verde Islands39%
×Draw34%
Egypt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Verde Islands
0.96
Egypt
0.76

Cape Verde Islands creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cape Verde Islands
1.25
Egypt
0.89

allows per match

Cape Verde Islands
0.63
Egypt
0.67

finishing

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par
Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Verde Islands ↓

Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cape Verde Islands or draw
72%
Cape Verde Islands or Egypt
66%
Draw or Egypt
61%

Winning margin

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
14%
Egypt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
62%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
25%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
7%
Egypt 1+ goals
53%
Egypt 2+ goals
18%
Egypt 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
58%
Egypt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Verde Islands at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Egypt away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.25 + Egypt defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Egypt attack 0.89 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cape Verde Islands scores more
39%
level
34%
Egypt scores more
28%

Cape Verde Islands at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Cape Verde Islands 2–2 Egypt

Cape Verde Islands and Egypt drew 2-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.