Cape Town City 0–0 Stellenbosch: Result & Stats

Cape Town City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stellenbosch

5/24/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 24DHL Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Cape Town City40%

×Draw29%

Stellenbosch30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cape Town CityExpected goals in this matchStellenbosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

Cape Town City

1.17

Stellenbosch

0.97

Cape Town City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 104 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

0.94

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Cape Town City

1.32

Stellenbosch

1.01

allows per match

Cape Town City

0.94

Stellenbosch

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par

Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Stellenbosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw

70%

Cape Town City or Stellenbosch

71%

Draw or Stellenbosch

60%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+

17%

Stellenbosch wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals

69%

Cape Town City 2+ goals

33%

Cape Town City 3+ goals

11%

Stellenbosch 1+ goals

62%

Stellenbosch 2+ goals

25%

Stellenbosch 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)

57%

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cape Town City scores more

40%

level

29%

Stellenbosch scores more

30%

Cape Town City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff