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Cape Town City vs Moroka Swallows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
2/19/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17DHL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cape Town City44%
×Draw30%
Moroka Swallows26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.19
Moroka Swallows
0.84

Cape Town City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 62 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Moroka Swallows
0.74

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Moroka Swallows
1.06

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Moroka Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
74%
Cape Town City or Moroka Swallows
70%
Draw or Moroka Swallows
56%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
19%
Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
70%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
33%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
12%
Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
57%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
21%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
63%
Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cape Town City scores more
44%
level
30%
Moroka Swallows scores more
26%

Cape Town City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cape Town City 2–0 Moroka Swallows

Cape Town City beat Moroka Swallows 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at DHL Stadium in Cape Town.