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Cape Town City vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Free State Stars
Free State Stars
1/16/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Cape Town Stadium (Cape Town)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cape Town City52%
×Draw26%
Free State Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.52
Free State Stars
0.87

Cape Town City creates 75% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Free State Stars
0.80

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Free State Stars
1.73

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Free State Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Free State Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
78%
Cape Town City or Free State Stars
74%
Draw or Free State Stars
48%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
27%
Free State Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
78%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
45%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
20%
Free State Stars 1+ goals
58%
Free State Stars 2+ goals
22%
Free State Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
71%
Free State Stars (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Free State Stars away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Free State Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Free State Stars attack 0.80 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cape Town City scores more
52%
level
26%
Free State Stars scores more
22%

Cape Town City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cape Town City vs Free State Stars

Cape Town City beat Free State Stars 5-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 16, 2019.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium (Cape Town).