Cape Town City 3–1 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Cape Town City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ajax Cape Town

9/30/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 6DHL Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cape Town City47%

×Draw28%

Ajax Cape Town25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cape Town CityExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.89

Cape Town City

1.35

Ajax Cape Town

0.89

Cape Town City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

1.32

creates per match

0.84

0.94

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cape Town City

1.32

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Cape Town City

0.94

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw

75%

Cape Town City or Ajax Cape Town

72%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

53%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+

23%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals

74%

Cape Town City 2+ goals

39%

Cape Town City 3+ goals

15%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

59%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

22%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)

66%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cape Town City scores more

47%

level

28%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

25%

Cape Town City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff