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Capalaba vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2026

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
2 – 5
Western Pride
Western Pride
3/19/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 4Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Capalaba31%
×Draw21%
Western Pride49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
1.67
Western Pride
2.14

Western Pride creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 32 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.40
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

Capalaba
2.62
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
51%
Capalaba or Western Pride
79%
Draw or Western Pride
69%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
15%
Western Pride wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
81%
Capalaba 2+ goals
50%
Capalaba 3+ goals
23%
Western Pride 1+ goals
88%
Western Pride 2+ goals
63%
Western Pride 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
39%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.62 · 42 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.40 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Capalaba defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Capalaba scores more
31%
level
21%
Western Pride scores more
49%

Western Pride at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capalaba vs Western Pride

Western Pride beat Capalaba 5-2 in Queensland Premier League on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Max Haynes Field in Redland.