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Capalaba vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2019

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
4/10/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 5Wakerley Park 2 - Synthetic Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Capalaba46%
×Draw20%
Magpies Crusaders34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
2.21
Magpies Crusaders
1.89

Capalaba creates 17% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.53
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

Capalaba
2.67
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
66%
Capalaba or Magpies Crusaders
80%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
54%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
27%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
89%
Capalaba 2+ goals
65%
Capalaba 3+ goals
38%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
85%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
56%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
57%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.67 · 36 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.53 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.21

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Capalaba defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Capalaba scores more
46%
level
20%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
34%

Capalaba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Capalaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capalaba vs Magpies Crusaders

Capalaba beat Magpies Crusaders 3-1 in Queensland NPL on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Wakerley Park 2 - Synthetic Pitch in Brisbane.