Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Capalaba vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
1 – 4
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
3/3/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Capalaba25%
×Draw19%
Brisbane Strikers56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
1.61
Brisbane Strikers
2.46

Brisbane Strikers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 55 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.40
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

Capalaba
2.62
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
44%
Capalaba or Brisbane Strikers
81%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
75%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
11%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
80%
Capalaba 2+ goals
48%
Capalaba 3+ goals
22%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
91%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
70%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
31%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.62 · 42 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.40 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Capalaba defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Capalaba scores more
25%
level
19%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
56%

Brisbane Strikers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capalaba vs Brisbane Strikers

Brisbane Strikers beat Capalaba 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Max Haynes Field in Redland.