Brisbane Strikers 3–1 Capalaba: Result & Stats

Brisbane Strikers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Capalaba

6/1/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 13Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Brisbane Strikers56%

×Draw20%

Capalaba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane StrikersExpected goals in this matchCapalaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.43

Brisbane Strikers

2.29

Capalaba

1.43

Brisbane Strikers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 42 away

2.33

creates per match

1.74

1.12

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers

2.33

Capalaba

1.74

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers

1.12

Capalaba

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Capalaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw

76%

Brisbane Strikers or Capalaba

80%

Draw or Capalaba

44%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

35%

Capalaba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

90%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

66%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

40%

Capalaba 1+ goals

76%

Capalaba 2+ goals

42%

Capalaba 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

71%

Capalaba (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.33 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.29

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more

56%

level

20%

Capalaba scores more

24%

Brisbane Strikers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff