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CAP vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Mineiro - 2 2026

CAP
CAP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
L. Ventura 50'
P. Schardong 48' (pen)
A. Junior 3'
6/1/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CAP22%
×Draw29%
Uniao Trabalhadores49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP
0.77
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.30

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

CAP
0.62
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.22

allows per match

CAP
1.38
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.91

finishing

CAP+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CAP or draw
51%
CAP or Uniao Trabalhadores
71%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
78%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+
7%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals
54%
CAP 2+ goals
18%
CAP 3+ goals
4%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
73%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
37%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)
31%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.62 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + CAP defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CAP scores more
22%
level
29%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
49%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Junior
48'
P. SchardongPenalty
50'
L. Ventura

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAP vs Uniao Trabalhadores

CAP beat Uniao Trabalhadores 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Junior (3'), P. Schardong (48' pen), L. Ventura (50').

The match was played at Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento in Patrocínio, Minas Gerais.