CAP 2–0 União Rondonópolis: Result & Stats

CAP

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

União Rondonópolis

Daniel 90'

Luiz Fernando 66' (pen)

5/26/2019

Serie D · Round 4Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento (Patrocínio, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CAP44%

×Draw27%

União Rondonópolis29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPExpected goals in this matchUnião Rondonópolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

CAP

1.39

União Rondonópolis

1.06

CAP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

1.06

creates per match

1.10

1.03

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

CAP

1.06

União Rondonópolis

1.10

allows per match

CAP

1.03

União Rondonópolis

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP+0.00on par

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

União Rondonópolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CAP or draw

71%

CAP or União Rondonópolis

73%

Draw or União Rondonópolis

56%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+

21%

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals

75%

CAP 2+ goals

40%

CAP 3+ goals

16%

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

65%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

29%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)

61%

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 1.06 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

União Rondonópolis attack 1.10 + CAP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CAP scores more

44%

level

27%

União Rondonópolis scores more

29%

CAP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Luiz FernandoPenalty

68'

Leo Gonçalves← Jeffinho

71'

Maranhão← Arthur Santos

78'

Daniel← Jarlan

84'

Mario César← Nininho

85'

Leonardo← Gil Mineiro

87'

Jorge Miguel← Luiz Fernando

90'

Daniel

CAP

União

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Thiago Oliveira

78'▲Daniel←▼Jarlan

84'▲Mario César←▼Nininho

87'▲Jorge Miguel←▼Luiz Fernando

CAP substitutes

DanielCésarMiguelBorgesCardosoFelipeRenato

Manager: Carlos Cunha

68'▲Leo Gonçalves←▼Jeffinho

71'▲Maranhão←▼Arthur Santos

85'▲Leonardo←▼Gil Mineiro

União Rondonópolis substitutes

GonçalvesMaranhãoLeonardoBrunoHenriqueTallyssonVinicius