CAP 1–2 Uberlandia: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 1

CAP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Uberlandia

1/30/2022

Mineiro - 1 · Round 2Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CAP42%

×Draw28%

Uberlandia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

CAP

1.28

Uberlandia

1.05

CAP creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

CAP

0.89

Uberlandia

1.03

allows per match

CAP

1.07

Uberlandia

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP or draw

70%

CAP or Uberlandia

72%

Draw or Uberlandia

58%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+

19%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals

72%

CAP 2+ goals

37%

CAP 3+ goals

14%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

65%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

28%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)

58%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.89 + Uberlandia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Uberlandia attack 1.03 + CAP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CAP scores more

42%

level

28%

Uberlandia scores more

30%

CAP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff