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CAP vs Tombense — Mineiro - 1 2020

CAP
CAP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
2/20/2022Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 8Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CAP34%
×Draw30%
Tombense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP
1.05
Tombense
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

CAP
0.89
Tombense
1.12

allows per match

CAP
1.07
Tombense
1.21

finishing

CAP+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CAP or draw
63%
CAP or Tombense
70%
Draw or Tombense
66%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+
13%
Tombense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals
65%
CAP 2+ goals
28%
CAP 3+ goals
9%
Tombense 1+ goals
67%
Tombense 2+ goals
30%
Tombense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)
48%
Tombense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.89 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tombense attack 1.12 + CAP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CAP scores more
34%
level
30%
Tombense scores more
37%

Tombense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAP 2 – 1 Tombense

CAP beat Tombense 2-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento in Patrocínio, Minas Gerais.