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CAP vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

CAP
CAP
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Palmas
Palmas
9/20/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAP52%
×Draw24%
Palmas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP
1.68
Palmas
1.04

CAP creates 62% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

CAP
1.06
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

CAP
1.03
Palmas
2.29

finishing

CAP+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CAP or draw
77%
CAP or Palmas
76%
Draw or Palmas
48%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+
28%
Palmas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals
81%
CAP 2+ goals
50%
CAP 3+ goals
24%
Palmas 1+ goals
65%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)
69%
Palmas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 1.06 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

Palmas attack 1.06 + CAP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CAP scores more
52%
level
24%
Palmas scores more
23%

CAP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAP 3 – 1 Palmas

CAP beat Palmas 3-1 in Serie D on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes in Nova Lima, Minas Gerais.