CAP 1–1 Democrata GV: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 1

CAP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Democrata GV

2/25/2023

Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CAP39%

×Draw30%

Democrata GV31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPExpected goals in this matchDemocrata GV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.96

CAP

1.10

Democrata GV

0.96

CAP creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

0.89

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

CAP

0.89

Democrata GV

0.85

allows per match

CAP

1.07

Democrata GV

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP+0.00on par

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Democrata GV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CAP or draw

69%

CAP or Democrata GV

70%

Draw or Democrata GV

61%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+

16%

Democrata GV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals

67%

CAP 2+ goals

30%

CAP 3+ goals

10%

Democrata GV 1+ goals

62%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

25%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)

55%

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.89 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + CAP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CAP scores more

39%

level

30%

Democrata GV scores more

31%

CAP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff