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CAP Uberlândia vs Nacional AC MG — Mineiro - 2 2020

CAP Uberlândia
CAP Uberlândia
FT
0 – 1
Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
2/29/2020Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CAP Uberlândia32%
×Draw30%
Nacional AC MG38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP Uberlândia
0.96
Nacional AC MG
1.08

Nacional AC MG creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 37 away

creates per match

CAP Uberlândia
0.83
Nacional AC MG
1.00

allows per match

CAP Uberlândia
1.17
Nacional AC MG
1.08

finishing

CAP Uberlândia+0.00on par
Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Uberlândia ↓

Nacional AC MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CAP Uberlândia or draw
62%
CAP Uberlândia or Nacional AC MG
70%
Draw or Nacional AC MG
68%

Winning margin

CAP Uberlândia wins by 2+
12%
Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CAP Uberlândia 1+ goals
62%
CAP Uberlândia 2+ goals
25%
CAP Uberlândia 3+ goals
7%
Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
66%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
29%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CAP Uberlândia (draw refunded)
46%
Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP Uberlândia at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP Uberlândia attack 0.83 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Nacional AC MG attack 1.00 + CAP Uberlândia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP Uberlândia scores more
32%
level
30%
Nacional AC MG scores more
38%

Nacional AC MG at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: CAP Uberlândia 0–1 Nacional AC MG

Nacional AC MG beat CAP Uberlândia 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.