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CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
Miguel 85'
Samuel Martínez 80'
12/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia43%
×Draw28%
El Palmar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.31
El Palmar
1.04

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.03
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.04
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw
70%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia or El Palmar
72%
Draw or El Palmar
57%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
20%
El Palmar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
73%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
38%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
14%
El Palmar 1+ goals
65%
El Palmar 2+ goals
28%
El Palmar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
59%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

El Palmar attack 1.03 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
43%
level
28%
El Palmar scores more
30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Juan Villa← José Hernández
46'
Guillermo Torres← Miguel Ruiz
56'
Emilio Pérez← Pablo Guillen
65'
Trucha← Tato
65'
Mascuñán← Carlos Rodrí
75'
Álvaro Quintana← Álvaro Marín
80'
Samuel Martínez
83'
Tyler← Fran Conesa
85'
Miguel
88'
Alberto Martínez← Miguel
88'
Alejandro Pérez← Franco
88'
Matías← Samuel Martínez
CAP
El
Alberto Hortal
Hortal
Álvaro Marín
▼
Marín
Paco López
López
Miguel Ruiz
▼
Ruiz
Andrés García
García
Tato
▼
Tato
Daniel Casado
Casado
Diego Sánchez
Sánchez
Fran Conesa
▼
Conesa
Carlos Rodrí
▼
Rodrí
Sam Philip
Philip
Miguel Martínez
Martínez
José Hernández
▼
Hernández
Mario
Mario
David
David
Diego Cárceles
Cárceles
Franco
▼
Franco
Pablo Guillen
▼
Guillen
Samuel Martínez
⚽
▼
Martínez
Javi Muñoz
Muñoz
Miguel
⚽
▼
Miguel
David Valverde
Valverde
Ismael Ibañez
Manager: Ismael Ibañez
30'▲Juan Villa←▼José Hernández
56'▲Emilio Pérez←▼Pablo Guillen
88'▲Alberto Martínez←▼Miguel
88'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Franco
88'▲Matías←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

VillaPérezMartínezPérezMatías
Antonio Calatayud
Manager: Antonio Calatayud
46'▲Guillermo Torres←▼Miguel Ruiz
65'▲Trucha←▼Tato
65'▲Mascuñán←▼Carlos Rodrí
75'▲Álvaro Quintana←▼Álvaro Marín
83'▲Tyler←▼Fran Conesa

El Palmar substitutes

TorresTruchaMascuñánQuintanaTyler

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2 – 0 El Palmar

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat El Palmar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 19, 2021.

Goals: Samuel Martínez (80'), Miguel (85').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.